Ethereum Cone Theory

Why these four timeframes

Timeframe ladder explained:

Each step expands by a decreasing multiplier: first ×5, then ×4, then ×3. This does not change the candle count inside each formation: every completed cone still reaches its apex on its 14th native candle.

3D3-day candles

× 5 Five 3-day candles cover 15 days

15D15-day candles

× 4 Four 15-day candles cover 60 days — roughly two months

2M2-month candles

× 3 Three 2-month candles cover six months

6M6-month candles

Formation One — 3 day candles

The first coil

Oct 28 – Dec 6, 2015

01 / 14

3D timeframe

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Candle date—

Close—

Range (O → C)—

Move from candle 1—

Barely twelve weeks into trading, Ethereum entered its first major compression.

The earliest 14-candle cone identified in Ethereum's recorded price history. Built from native 3-day candles, the formation begins with the $1.34 structural high on October 28, 2015, and contracts into its apex on Candle 14.

Forming — 1 of 14

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Formation Two — 15 day candles

After the DAO

Jun 14 – Dec 26, 2016

01 / 14

15D timeframe

——

Candle date—

Close—

Range (O → C)—

Move from candle 1—

Ethereum printed its $21.52 high one day before The DAO hack. The crash — and eventual hard fork — followed.

Candle 1 contains the $21.52 high of Jun 16, 2016 — the last local top before the DAO fallout took ETH under $7.

Forming — 1 of 14

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Formation Three — 2 month candles

The long bleed

Jan 1, 2018 – Mar 1, 2020

01 / 14

2M timeframe

——

Candle date—

Close—

Range (O → C)—

Move from candle 1—

Ethereum's 2018 peak gave way to a two-year unwind.

Candle 1 contains the $1,420 high of Jan 13, 2018. Twenty-six months later, the same compression logic reaches its apex within days of the COVID crash.

Forming — 1 of 14

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Formation Four — 6 month candles

The current cycle

Jul 1, 2021 – present

01 / 14

6M timeframe

——

Candle date—

Close—

Range (O → C)—

Move from candle 1—

The only formation still live. Candle 1 holds Ethereum's $4,868.79 November 2021 peak.

That remains true even if Ethereum eventually sets a new all-time high. Eleven candles in, five years on — three candles remain in the proposed sequence. We do not know the future convergence point yet.

Active — 1 of 14

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What the four formations show

Same structure. Three completed cycles. One active test.

Across three completed formations, the cone boundaries converge inside Candle 14. A possible fourth formation is now developing on the 6M chart.

3D · Oct–Dec 2015

14 / 14

39 days · candle body fell 38.5% from high to apex

15D · Jun–Dec 2016

14 / 14

195 days · candle body fell 63.0% from high to apex

2M · Jan 2018–Mar 2020

14 / 14

790 days · candle body fell 85.5% from high to apex

6M · Jul 2021–present

11 / 14

1,826 days so far · three candles remain in the proposed sequence. We do not know the future convergence point yet.

Built from native ETH/USD candles · View methodology